The New Gilded Age
Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
George Santayana, Historian/Philosopher
This year will always be remembered in the U.S. as the moment Donald J. Trump staged one of the biggest comebacks in American history. After being soundly defeated (despite his false claims) in 2020, Trump incredibly ran for the third straight time, beating Vice-President Kamala Harris. Only once in our history has a President pulled off such a feat. Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th President of the United States (1885–1889 and 1893–1897), is notable for being the only other president to serve two non-consecutive terms.
The Gilded Age
It is one of those historic ironies that Cleveland’s era and our own share many similarities beyond their unique presidencies. Cleveland served during The Gilded Age (1870-1900), a period in U.S. history characterized by rapid economic growth, industrialization, western expansion and an influx of immigrants. Coined by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner in their 1873 book The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today, the term suggests a thin veneer of gold masking societal ills like corruption, inequality, and exploitation. For the Gilded Age was also the age of industrial monopolies and American imperialism. For the first time in our history, an aristocracy of industrial titans emerged to rule over society. Defenseless workers were mercilessly exploited until they literally collapsed at their jobs.
Men like Rockefeller, Carnegie and Vanderbilt amassed great fortunes and political power through monopoly control of vital economic sectors. Today, their names are Bezos, Musk and Zuckerberg, among others. As happened 140 years ago, we are witnessing the rise of monopoly power and the billionaires who wield it. Our government has been corrupted by all the money spent buying political influence. The election of 2024 will go down as the most expensive in world history. An estimated $16 billion was spent by both campaigns and their surrogates. In the words of Greg Pallast, journalist and documentarian, we have “the best democracy money can buy.”
In 2024, many political, economic, and cultural events reshaped the world, reflecting both ongoing challenges like war and climate change and new developments, like Trump 2.0 and artificial intelligence.
2024 Presidential Election
This year’s election included a number of twists and turns never before seen in U.S. politics. Former President Donald Trump, defeated in 2020 and under indictment in multiple criminal cases, nevertheless won the Republican nomination for the third time in a row. President Joe Biden ran for re-election, focusing on the inherent danger in allowing twice impeached and criminally indicted Trump back in the White House.
After a disastrous debate performance amid questions about his ability to lead as an octogenarian, Biden stepped aside in favor of his Vice-President. While we’ve had eight Vice-Presidents succeed their President due to his death in office and one by resignation (Ford), we’ve never had a sitting president decide at the last minute to step aside and anoint his VP as his successor without a primary or convention to ratify it.
We know now how that didn’t turn out. Harris lost both the popular vote and the electoral college, the first Democrat to do that since John Kerry back in 2004. She ran a vigorous abbreviated campaign and clearly won the only debate with Trump, but despite her qualifications and plans to grow the middle class, she lost. However, Trump didn’t really win either. Who actually won the Presidency? None Of The Above won. That’s because 36% (89 million) of eligible Americans didn’t even bother to show up and cast a ballot or had been purged from the voting rolls. Trump got 32% of eligible voters and Harris got 31%. The real election news that nobody talks about is the lack of turnout. Why do so many Americans feel so apathetic about our democracy? If no one shows up to vote, is it still an election?
Post-election, a lot of handwringing and gnashing of teeth is going on in progressive circles. How did Trump win over so many working-class Americans, despite his obvious character flaws? How could Harris have lost, despite her obvious bona fides? Should Biden have dropped out? Pundits are still sorting through the aftermath to figure it all out. Voters cited the economy, notably inflation, and immigration as the two main reasons they chose Trump. Pollsters typically didn’t ask if Kamala Harris’ bi-racial background was a factor in their decision and only the hardest of the hardcore MAGAsters would have admitted it anyway. But judging by Trump’s closing argument in the last week of the campaign, hatred of anyone who is not a straight White Anglo-Saxon Protestant clinched the Republican victory.
My take is that Kamala Harris was the wrong candidate for the wrong time. Although she won three state-wide races in California and the Vice-Presidency as part of Biden’s winning ticket in 2020, Americans were simply not ready to elect the bi-racial daughter of immigrants to the highest office in the land. Too many Americans still believe in White supremacy to vote for a woman of color as their President, the one elected position that supposedly represents all of us. Democrats hoped Kamala would be the female Obama, but that was a bridge too far. Perhaps this tells us just how much of a unicorn Obama is. He was literally the only person in America who could have broken through the color barrier. Others who follow are not guaranteed success.
My life partner, herself an Asian immigrant, pointed that out to me months before the election. Living in California with two bi-racial sons myself, I couldn’t believe that America still harbored such bigotry. In California, we are far from perfect but have mostly evolved beyond blatant racism as our population has diversified, attracting people from all over the world. However, this election shows that California is living in the future, in a time when a multicultural democracy is a given and the only disagreements are about how best to serve the entire diverse population.
The rest of America will eventually catch up with California because we can’t deport our way back to the 17th century. In fact, demographers predict that by 2040, sixteen years from now, Whites will no longer be the majority of Americans. Instead, we will become a minority-majority nation, with minority percentages of White, Latino, Black and Asian Americans distributed throughout the U.S., not just in the large coastal cities.
The only path forward, which California is now charting, will be for us to drop our racial animus and bigotry, embrace each other as fellow human beings who are Americans, and join forces to work together for the betterment of all. I believe that was the path forward Kamala Harris was trying to sell. Unfortunately, America wasn’t buying it. I can only dream that I live long enough to see it happen throughout the U.S. Meantime, I’m not leaving California.
It’s the Stupid Economy
Voters overwhelmingly cited the economy as their primary reason for voting for Trump and the Republican Party. Republicans are the party of big business, so they have a reputation of being good for the economy. Their track record, however, suggests otherwise. Every Republican going back to Nixon had a major recession on their watch. Every Democratic President, going back to Kennedy, oversaw a growing economy. Still, the perception remains. So, although the Biden economy was the envy of the rest of the world, posting three straight years of growth in GDP, real wages and corporate profits, he and Harris were treated as though they were presiding over the Great Depression.
Why the disconnect between reality and perception? One big part of that disconnect is that half of Americans are now part of the working poor. These are people who are barely earning enough to scrape by, without enough savings to even cover a $500 auto repair. In fact, a significant number are living beyond their incomes with the assistance of easy credit. Americans have racked up $1.14 trillion in credit card debt. Many will never be able to pay it back, ruining their credit for years. So those voters are always negative about our economy, no matter who’s in the White House, because the American economy does not work for them. They tend to vote against the incumbent out of frustration. Many of the White working poor turned to Trump this year, despite evidence that he despises them and will do nothing to ease their poverty.
This year, inflation was the other economic factor weighing on voters. It was also the biggest political hot potato. Everyone was against it but no one knew how to defeat it. All voters knew, from what they heard from Trump and the media, was that inflation was all Biden’s fault, until it was suddenly all Harris’ fault. The true causes of inflation – broken supply chain, monopoly profiteering, rising wages, government stimulus and high interest rates – were never discussed in any serious way during this campaign because the average American actually has no idea whatsoever what’s causing inflation. All they know is that the prices of essentials keep going up and somebody must be to blame.
Even the media, outside the business press, never seriously pressed the candidates on what they would do about inflation if elected. Harris talked vaguely about going after price gouging without ever explaining how monopoly profiteering contributed to higher inflation. Trump’s convoluted solution, if you could make any sense out of the word salad he tossed on the campaign trail, was to cut taxes for his billionaire buddies, which will explode the national debt and dump even more money into an overheating economy and impose tariffs on all imports, which would send prices soaring. The fact that Americans voted for Trump’s “solution” to inflation shows just how ignorant we are about how our $14 trillion economy operates.
The other economic argument I heard from Trump voters is much more traditionally straightforward. My business colleagues at the Chamber of Commerce voted their self-interest, plain and simple. One told me he couldn’t care less about Trump’s criminal behavior; he just wanted his tax cut. Given the number of billionaires popping up in cabinet positions in the new Trump administration, the business community will undoubtedly get their wish. As of this writing, it looks like we may inaugurate President Elon Musk in January. Trump will retire on the job and play golf in Florida.
I’ll predict right now that Republicans will allow their wealthy campaign donors to get away with paying nothing in taxes and try to make the middle-class foot the bill for everything. The Federal deficit will balloon, leading Trump to call for draconian cuts in everything the government does that actually helps the American people. Musk and the billionaire elites will echo these calls incessantly through their media megaphones. Americans will be asked to slit their own throats to help save the billionaires. Let’s see how that campaign slogan plays in the next election.
If the Donald Trump-Grover Cleveland comparison holds, we are in for real trouble. After winning reelection over a weak incumbent, Cleveland immediately saw the economy collapse in the Great Panic of 1893, the worst depression of the 19th century. He spent his second term desperately trying to stem the bank failures, bankruptcies and massive unemployment of the time. So bad was his reputation by the end of his second term, his Democratic party would not win the Presidency again for the next 16 years. So, if history is a guide, maybe we have something worthwhile to anticipate way down the road. The Progressive Era followed Cleveland and led to the modern American economy and political system we have today.
Immigration Consternation
Immigration remained a contentious issue which Trump clearly manipulated for his benefit. Nearly 60% of Americans viewed immigration as a key government priority, although solutions varied significantly. Trump’s promise to mass deport 11 million undocumented people drew cheers at his rallies and contributed to his win. However, economists warn that mass deportations will decimate industries dependent on immigrant labor and further exacerbate inflation. Moreover, many decry the human relations disaster of rounding up millions, including children, and locking them up until they can be unceremoniously dumped at the Mexican border.
This is not a uniquely American problem. Many other developed countries in Europe and Asia face similar pressures from increased immigration. It is easier than ever before to move around the world. People are moving to escape wars, poverty, natural disasters fueled by climate change and political persecution. The mass movement of people will only increase this century. Imagine if sea level rises one meter by 2100, as many climatologists predict. How many millions of coastal dwellers will be flooded out of their homes and become tomorrow’s migrants?
We need to learn to deal with immigration in a rational and humane way. Allow those who can contribute to live here while screening out those who cannot. We still have room to grow as a country, but it has to be according to a clear plan, not helter-skelter. Moreover, international organizations will need to step up their efforts to provide relief to those suffering before they feel forced to flee their homes.
Endless Wars
The world continued to witness two regional wars with global implications. The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, has devolved into a bloody stalemate, neither side able to achieve a knockout but both inflicting heavy casualties that cannot be sustained forever. With Trump returning to power, he is likely to pressure Ukraine to accept a one-sided deal that ends the war if they cede the eastern portion of their country to Russia. Putin will declare victory and the rump Ukraine will be cowed into a client state. The question is whether NATO and President Zelensky will agree to such capitulation.
The other major conflict – Israel-Hamas – dragged into its second year with dramatic expansion of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel under Netanyahu has pursued a scorched earth policy with the total destruction of Gaza and elimination of all of its enemies as the price of peace. With few fighters left to kill, the Israeli military has turned to massacring the Palestinian civilian population through aerial bombing of anything left standing. Those who survive the bombardments are facing starvation because Israel refuses to let aid reach Gazans. They are conducting an Old Testament siege of Gaza, like Joshua at the battle of Jericho. So far, 45,000 Palestinians have perished, including 17,000 children. That’s 41 Palestinians for every Israeli killed on October 7th, for those keeping score at home.
Israel justifies this slaughter by citing the brutal Oct. 7, 2023 attack on its innocent civilians, which resulted in 1100 deaths and hundreds of Israelis captured. While a military response was certainly required, it did not have to include the indiscriminate killing and starvation of civilians. Hamas should be eliminated as a political force without also eliminating the people they represent. But modern warfare turns the weapons of war against civilians more often than uniformed soldiers. In all the wars fought so far in this century, civilians have paid the ultimate sacrifice far more than military personnel.
Palestinian Protests
The war caught the attention of U.S. college students last spring, resulting in the largest campus protests since the Vietnam War. To the shock of many American Jews, protestors largely took the side of the Palestinians, seeing them as hapless victims of Western colonial imperialism. For the 75 years since its founding, Israel has always enjoyed widespread support among Americans. This time, sentiment turned against Israel’s conduct of the war. Students set up encampments and pressured their universities to divest from the Israeli-American war machine. My alma mater, UCLA, saw the worst violence since I was there for the Cambodia invasion protests in 1970.
Back then, students had a direct stake in the Vietnam War, both because our own government was the aggressor and students faced the prospect of being drafted and sent to die there. This year’s protest did not have the same immediate connection. At first, it seemed odd that college students would focus on a conflict halfway around the world instead of the many problems in our own backyard.
The reason the Gaza War resonated so deeply with American youth appears to be social media. It was the first war to be completely broadcast on social media, all the blood and gore right there in 4k HD for everyone to see. Both Israelis and Palestinians took ample advantage of their smart phones to fill social media sites worldwide with images of death and destruction. I believe this was the tipping point. Several college protestors have shared that what spurred them to action was watching the dead bodies of old women and young children carted to the morgue or simply left to rot on the streets of Gaza City. They simply could not sit idly by while such inhumanity was being carried out in our name as Israel’s largest weapons supplier and defender. Protests have temporarily died off but expect more to occur in 2025 as Israel contemplates annexing Gaza, the West Bank and Golan Heights. Perhaps King Bibi, given absolute immunity, will declare himself ruler over a Greater Israel rivaling that of King Solomon. I expect Trump will announce before the end of his term that he will build a world-class hotel on the beach in Gaza City, emblazoned with his name in golden lights.
AI Charts the Future
Artificial intelligence has been around for years, making our gadgets smarter. But generative AI, such as ChatGPT and Midjourney, now promises a future in which all information is at our fingertips, just a query away. This year, companies went all in on the next big thing in high tech. AI found its way into all manner of human activity, including health care, customer service, finance, education, transportation and entertainment. Everyone sees the promise of having a smart personal assistant constantly at our side, providing real-time expert advice to help us make smart decisions.
Not all is rosy though. AI also threatens our privacy and employment opportunities, reinforces biases and can be weaponized by bad actors to deceive and defraud. It can allow authoritarians to control their populations with ruthless efficiency. Further down the road, we could create AI so advanced that it tries to take over. Stanley Kubrick already predicted that outcome in his film 2001: A Space Odyssey. He may have been off by a few decades, but the dystopian future he imagined is a real threat.
Personal News
I’ve had an eventful year both personally and professionally. Last year, I reported that I was recovering from cancer surgery and beginning chemotherapy. Now, I’m happy to report that I completed six months of chemo and my oncologist says I’m cancer-free. I’m back to my former self, minus the excess COVID weight, thanks to the effects of chemo on my appetite and a wholesale change in my diet. It’s hardly the recommended way to lose weight, but I always try to look on the bright side. I can now fit into suits I wore 25 years ago. (And yes, a few of them are still hanging in my closet!)
The other big news is that I acquired a third granddaughter this summer when my life partner Tania’s granddaughter came from the Philippines to live with us and continue her education in the U.S. I raised two sons but never a daughter. Although I also have two other granddaughters, having Mikeyla under our roof has been quite an experience. I have enjoyed getting to know her and guiding her through the U.S. education system. Her enthusiasm and optimism about life are contagious and give me hope for the future.
As for my business, Training Education Management LLC, I continue to work for two of my long-time clients – ATD (Association for Talent Development) and ANSI (American National Standards Institute). I enjoy the work and the association with fellow professionals and besides, nobody can live on Social Security alone these days. I also have joined the Board of Directors of the Redondo Beach Chamber of Commerce as Vice-Chair and have agreed to take over as Chair next year. In my spare time, I also serve on the Board of our South Bay Workforce Investment Board (WIB) representing Redondo Beach and am active in supporting workforce and youth development in my local community.
It’s a full life, which is just the way I like it. As I enter the autumn of my years, I realize my time is growing shorter, so I’m determined to make every moment count for something. I even continue to make progress in my favorite avocation – golf. Despite its inherent frustrations, I keep inching closer to the day when I can shoot my age.
Priceless Moments
As always, 2024 left us with some moments we will never forget, even if we wished we could. Here are a few of my favorites.
To Bernie Bros turned Trump Bros: Back in 2016, you were all in for the democratic socialist who thundered against the wealthy ruling class, but eight years later, you decided to back Trump, the very epitome of the White ruling class in America. You have to admit that the only consistency in your politics is the “Bros” part. All male, all the time, baby!
To Sean “Diddy” Combs, accused of sexual assault: You had it all – fabulous wealth, global fame, lifestyle of the rich and famous. But that wasn’t enough for a morbidly rich man like you. You had to get freaky and start paying for sex orgies to get your motor running. You didn’t even bother to check the age of your victims and apparently didn’t care what gender or color they were, so long as they freaked off just like you wanted them to. Maybe the guys will invite you to a freak off after you’re sentenced to prison for the rest of your life.
To the British Royal Family: We Yanks are not supposed to care about the British monarchy, which we rebelled against in 1776. But Americans and everyone around the world watched anxiously as both King Charles and Princess Kate battled cancer. I’m glad they are doing well. It’s ironic that I finally have something in common with British royalty, although my maternal family lore insists that we are related to Lady Jane Grey, the Nine Day Queen who briefly ruled England in 1553 before being beheaded in a palace coup. Supposedly, that’s why my ancestors boarded a ship for Massachusetts a hundred years later.
To the U.S. Supreme Court: The court’s decision that presidents are entitled to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for acts that involved the exercise of their “core constitutional powers” as they define them helped put Trump back in the White House. The Supremes have declared the President above the law, dismissing all the criminal cases against him. The Supremes also act like they are above the law. Funny, I thought that leaders who are above the law are called monarchs or dictators.
To the Trans Community: Although you represent only .06% (1.6 million) people in the U.S., congratulations on becoming the biggest issue in the U.S. election. Of course, sympathy is probably a better option, since you were vilified in non-stop Republican campaign ads that claimed Kamala Harris only supported you while Trump supported everyone else. The transparent mendacity and prejudice displayed towards you is a harbinger of more trouble ahead with Trump in full control and threatening to come after you first before the rest of us. I hope people continue to defend your rights less we all lose our rights in a growing totalitarian world order.
